BUZZ-COMMENT-INR to benefit as Indian govt joins inflation fight
May 23 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to receive a much-needed boost from signs that the government is joining forces with the Reserve Bank of India in a two-pronged attempt to rein in runaway inflation.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday announced a series of measures to soften the effect of rising prices on consumers after inflation surged to an eight-year high in April on food and energy costs .
The excise duty cut on petrol, diesel and essential commodities along with an increase in fertiliser and cooking gas subsidies will have a direct impact on the consumer price index .
Nomura analysts expect these measure to lower CPI inflation by 0.2 percentage points, with an additional impact of 0.1-0.2 percentage points from second-round effects.
Further, two government officials told Reuters that New Delhi is considering spending an additional $26 billion to fight inflation in fiscal 2022/23, with another round of tax cuts on petrol and diesel possible if crude oil prices continue to rise .
The government's measures are also likely to reduce the need for aggressive RBI interest rate hikes that would have jeopardised India's nascent economic recovery .
Policy measures to curb inflation and the RBI's FX intervention are likely to temper INR weakness, while elevated oil prices and a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve will limit its upside.
Trading a USD/INR range of 76.90-78.00 looks prudent.
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India's April crude oil imports hit highest since Oct 2018: https://tmsnrt.rs/3wZ1oIX
(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai)
((krishna.k@thomsonreuters.com))
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